·The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 26.8%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.39 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
·The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
·These values were computed from 951 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
1. FC Magdeburg to win49.1%
Draw24.1%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win26.8%
When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →
A. Nollenberger · red card
76'⚽SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus (assist: N. Futkeu)
83'⚽1. FC MagdeburgR. Ghrieb (assist: E. Dzogovic)
90'⚽1. FC MagdeburgN. Pesch
90'⚽SpVgg Greuther FürthM. John (assist: F. Klaus)
316
16
Fouls
10
5
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
Both teams to score67.2%
When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw73.2%
12 — any result other than a draw75.9%
X2 — draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth win50.9%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).
First half
Actual: 1–1
1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time35.3%
Level at half-time37.8%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time26.9%
First-half double chance
1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level73.1%
12 — not level at half-time62.2%
X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead64.7%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 951 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
1. FC Magdeburg
at least 11Actual: 16
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
at least 10Actual: 10
Corners
1. FC Magdeburg
at least 5Actual: 2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
at least 4Actual: 3
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
3+ goals64.9%
When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.87
Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.20
Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–111.1%2–110.3%1–27.3%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 951 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
1. FC Magdeburg–
SpVgg Greuther Fürth