2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Karlsruher SC

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Karlsruher SC
16	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
478	Passes	457
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.70 · Karlsruher SC 1.49. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 16 · Karlsruher SC 9; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

M. Burda→

4.33

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.41 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win41.8%

Draw26.0%

Karlsruher SC to win32.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf win or draw67.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Karlsruher SC win58.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time39.7%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 950 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 9
Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 4
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.70

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.49

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 950 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.