2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

1. FC Nürnberg–SC Paderborn 07

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 August 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		SC Paderborn 07
14	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
47%	Possession	53%
390	Passes	439
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 · SC Paderborn 07 1.67. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 14 · SC Paderborn 07 15; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.11

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.66 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 945 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win29.9%

Draw25.9%

SC Paderborn 07 to win44.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time39.4%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 945 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 12
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 7
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.38

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.67

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.1%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.