2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Hertha BSC–SV Elversberg

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 29 August 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SV ElversbergY. Ebnoutalib (assist: L. Petkov)
59'SV ElversbergY. Ebnoutalib (assist: L. Petkov)
77'Hertha BSCL. Gechter · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		SV Elversberg
7	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
386	Passes	531
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.46 · SV Elversberg 1.26. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Hertha BSC 7 · SV Elversberg 16; on target 2 and 6.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.32

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “SV Elversberg to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Hertha BSC, 1.26 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 945 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win46.9%

Draw25.8%

SV Elversberg to win27.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

6	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hertha BSC lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time41.9%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 945 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 15
SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 4
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.46

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.26

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.4%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.