2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Holstein Kiel

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 August 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Holstein KielJ. Therkelsen (assist: P. Harres)
90'Holstein KielJ. Tolkin (assist: J. Krumrey)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Holstein Kiel
15	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
437	Passes	361
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 · Holstein Kiel 1.52. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15 · Holstein Kiel 17; on target 2 and 4.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

F. Bickel→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.57 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 942 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win33.6%

Draw26.2%

Holstein Kiel to win40.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time38.3%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 942 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 10Actual: 13
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 5Actual: 6
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.32

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.52

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–29.6%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.