2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

Karlsruher SC–Eintracht Braunschweig

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Karlsruher SCR. Šimić (assist: S. Jung)
57'Karlsruher SCFabian Schleusener
90+2'Eintracht BraunschweigL. Breunig · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Eintracht Braunschweig
9	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
340	Passes	483
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 2.04 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.01. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Karlsruher SC 9 · Eintracht Braunschweig 9; on target 5 and 2.
Eintracht Braunschweig kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Wagner→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Karlsruher SC, 1.22 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Karlsruher SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win53.0%

Draw24.1%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time54.5%

Level at half-time33.9%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.1%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead45.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 938 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 23
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 5
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score2.04

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.01

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.