2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

SC Paderborn 07–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'SC Paderborn 07T. Scheller · red card
35'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: V. Lunddal)
42'Fortuna DüsseldorfF. Muslija (assist: S. Appelkamp)
84'SC Paderborn 07N. Batzner (assist: S. Marino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Fortuna Düsseldorf
17	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
373	Passes	513
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.06 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 17 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 14; on target 4 and 6.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.56

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.7%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.17 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win56.7%

Draw23.0%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win20.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time42.3%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 938 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 10Actual: 12
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 9
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.06

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.14

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–110.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.