2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

Holstein Kiel–Arminia Bielefeld

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Arminia BielefeldN. Sarenren Bazee
45'Arminia BielefeldT. Handwerker
70'Arminia BielefeldJ. Kersken · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Arminia Bielefeld
15	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
455	Passes	315
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.76 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.70. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Holstein Kiel 15 · Arminia Bielefeld 12; on target 7 and 4.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.71

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Holstein Kiel, 1.39 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 933 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win40.1%

Draw26.5%

Arminia Bielefeld to win33.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time45.5%

Level at half-time35.8%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.2%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead54.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 933 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 13
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 9
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.76

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.70

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.