2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Dynamo Dresden

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 August 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu (assist: R. Munz)
9'SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus (assist: B. Hrgota)
11'Dynamo DresdenC. Daferner (assist: J. Lemmer)
51'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu (assist: M. Olesen)
74'Dynamo DresdenC. Kammerknecht

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Dynamo Dresden
10	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
1	Offsides	3
31%	Possession	69%
233	Passes	518
165	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10 · Dynamo Dresden 21; on target 5 and 4.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

L. Erbst→

5.17

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 0 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

8	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.