2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

FC Schalke 04–Hertha BSC

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 August 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla (assist: P. Remmert)
23'FC Schalke 04N. Katić (assist: C. Antwi-Adjei)
89'Hertha BSCS. Grønning (assist: Marten Winkler)
90+8'FC Schalke 04N. Katić · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Hertha BSC
14	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	10
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
270	Passes	473
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.45 · Hertha BSC 1.62. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 14 · Hertha BSC 9; on target 6 and 3.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

R. Hempel→

5.00

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for FC Schalke 04, 1.61 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 918 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win32.7%

Draw26.0%

Hertha BSC to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	12

7	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time39.5%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time30.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level69.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 918 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 19
Hertha BSC: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 5
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.45

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.62

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.