Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Laval–Boulogne

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'LavalOwen Kouassi (assist: M. Camara)
44'LavalM. Camara
90'BoulogneL. Boiteau (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Laval		Boulogne
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	3
6	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
359	Passes	443
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Laval 1.14 · Boulogne 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Laval 14 · Boulogne 7; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

A. Souifi→

3.82

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “Laval to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Laval, 0.99 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Laval win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Laval to win52.8%

Draw26.1%

Boulogne to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Laval win or draw79.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Boulogne win47.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Laval lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time46.9%

Boulogne lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Laval ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Laval: at least 13Actual: 11
Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Laval: at least 4Actual: 11
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Laval score1.14

Attack: Laval score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score1.11

Attack: Boulogne score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–011.0%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1361 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.