Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

RED Star FC 93–Montpellier

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'RED Star FC 93K. Cabral (assist: J. Ikanga A Ngele)
88'MontpellierN. Pays

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Montpellier
17	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
444	Passes	459
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.26 · Montpellier 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots RED Star FC 93 17 · Montpellier 8; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

A. Petit→

3.51

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for RED Star FC 93, 1.07 for Montpellier.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win52.3%

Draw25.5%

Montpellier to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,338 of 2,543 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw77.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Montpellier win47.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

Montpellier lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Montpellier ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 7
Montpellier: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 3
Montpellier: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.26

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montpellier score1.16

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1361 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.