Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Reims–PAU

5–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'PAUK. Dong (assist: J. Anziani)
21'PAUK. Dong (assist: J. Anziani)
25'ReimsM. Daramy (assist: A. Tia)
39'ReimsKeito Nakamura (assist: Sergio Akieme)
49'ReimsKeito Nakamura (assist: Y. Benhattab)
61'ReimsKeito Nakamura

Match statistics

Match statistics
Reims		PAU
13	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
679	Passes	331
626	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Reims 1.88 · PAU 0.86. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots Reims 13 · PAU 11; on target 9 and 5.
Reims kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.85

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.7%: “Reims to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Reims, 0.92 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 88.7% (1X — Reims win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Reims to win70.7%

Draw18.1%

PAU to win11.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: Y. Benhattab)

76'ReimsKeito Nakamura (assist: H. Sekine)

10	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Reims win or draw88.7%

12 — any result other than a draw81.9%

X2 — draw or PAU win29.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.1%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Reims lead at half-time50.7%

Level at half-time36.7%

PAU lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Reims ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or PAU ahead49.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Reims: at least 13Actual: 10
PAU: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Reims: at least 5Actual: 4
PAU: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Reims score1.88

Attack: Reims score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score0.86

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reims concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.6%2–110.6%1–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1361 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.