Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Rodez–Saint Etienne

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'RodezI. Baldé (assist: A. Trouillet)
54'RodezI. Baldé
89'Saint EtienneI. Cardona (assist: A. Boakye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rodez		Saint Etienne
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
4	Offsides	4
41%	Possession	59%
345	Passes	505
279	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rodez 1.18 · Saint Etienne 1.51. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rodez 17 · Saint Etienne 10; on target 5 and 5.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.88

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “Rodez to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Rodez, 1.68 for Saint Etienne.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rodez to win31.3%

Draw25.6%

Saint Etienne to win43.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rodez lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time43.4%

Saint Etienne lead at half-time36.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Rodez ahead or level63.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Saint Etienne ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rodez: at least 13Actual: 11
Saint Etienne: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Rodez: at least 4Actual: 2
Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rodez score1.18

Attack: Rodez score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.51

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Rodez's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.9%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.