Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Le Mans–Reims

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'ReimsM. Gbane (assist: T. Leoni)
36'Le MansS. Yohou (assist: A. Lauray)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Reims
17	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	7
46%	Possession	54%
391	Passes	468
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Mans 1.26 · Reims 1.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Le Mans 17 · Reims 8; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

P. Gaillouste→

3.72

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Le Mans to win”. Second comes “Reims to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Le Mans, 1.27 for Reims.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Mans to win37.3%

Draw28.5%

Reims to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Mans win or draw65.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Reims win62.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Le Mans lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time43.6%

Reims lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Mans ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Reims ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Mans: at least 13Actual: 16
Reims: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Le Mans: at least 4Actual: 3
Reims: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Mans score1.26

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reims concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reims score1.06

Attack: Reims score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Le Mans concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%2–19.1%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1352 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.