Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

PAU–Nancy

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'PAUA. Bobichon
50'NancyE. Mendy (assist: T. Bouriaud)
63'NancyN. Fernandez-Veliz
90'NancyN. Saint-Ruf (assist: Maxence Carlier)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAU		Nancy
16	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
643	Passes	227
563	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAU 1.57 · Nancy 1.04. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots PAU 16 · Nancy 10; on target 4 and 6.
PAU kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

A. Taleb→

3.23

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “PAU to win”. Second comes “Nancy to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for PAU, 1.29 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAU to win36.4%

Draw28.4%

Nancy to win35.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PAU win or draw64.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Nancy win63.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

PAU lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time42.3%

Nancy lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — PAU ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAU: at least 13Actual: 8
Nancy: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

PAU: at least 5Actual: 5
Nancy: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAU score1.57

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score1.04

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.0%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1352 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.