Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Estac Troyes–Laval

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Estac TroyesA. Mille (assist: M. Adeline)
22'Estac TroyesK. Diawara (assist: A. Mille)
49'Estac TroyesM. Adeline (assist: A. Mille)
59'Estac TroyesK. Diawara (assist: Y. Titi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Laval
17	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
541	Passes	463
481	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.81 · Laval 0.76. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Estac Troyes 17 · Laval 7; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.23

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Estac Troyes, 1.00 for Laval.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win60.0%

Draw22.8%

Laval to win17.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estac Troyes win or draw82.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or Laval win40.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time46.3%

Laval lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Laval ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 13Actual: 14
Laval: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 5Actual: 4
Laval: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.81

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Laval score0.76

Attack: Laval score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1352 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 104 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.