Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Montpellier–Clermont Foot

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'MontpellierA. Mendy (assist: Enzo Tchato Mbiayi)
25'Clermont FootY. Salmier
45'Clermont FootA. Hunou (assist: I. Coulibaly)
51'MontpellierKhalil Fayad · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		Clermont Foot
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
480	Passes	285
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.56 · Clermont Foot 0.88. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Montpellier 14 · Clermont Foot 7; on target 6 and 3.
Montpellier kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

G. Kubler→

3.72

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Montpellier to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Montpellier, 1.05 for Clermont Foot.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — Montpellier win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win57.9%

Draw23.4%

Clermont Foot to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Montpellier lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time45.4%

Clermont Foot lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Clermont Foot ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 14Actual: 20
Clermont Foot: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Montpellier: at least 5Actual: 11
Clermont Foot: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.56

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Clermont Foot score0.88

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.