Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Saint Etienne–Estac Troyes

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Estac TroyesM. Ifnaoui (assist: M. Adeline)
89'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb
90'Estac TroyesM. Detourbet (assist: M. El Idrissy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Estac Troyes
13	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
498	Passes	251
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.49 · Estac Troyes 1.14. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Saint Etienne 13 · Estac Troyes 15; on target 3 and 4.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.51

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “Estac Troyes to win” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Saint Etienne, 1.21 for Estac Troyes.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,350 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win48.5%

Draw25.7%

Estac Troyes to win25.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time40.7%

Estac Troyes lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Estac Troyes ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1350 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 13Actual: 15
Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 9
Estac Troyes: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.49

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.14

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.5%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.