Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Reims–Nancy

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'ReimsT. Diarra (assist: E. Zabi)
65'NancyC. Suljic · red card
85'NancyZ. Fdaouch (assist: M. Experience)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Reims		Nancy
12	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	0
4	Offsides	3
72%	Possession	28%
595	Passes	231
533	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Reims 1.93 · Nancy 0.66. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Reims 12 · Nancy 7; on target 4 and 1.
Reims kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

G. Angoula→

3.02

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Reims to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Reims, 0.83 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Reims win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,348 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Reims to win63.4%

Draw22.6%

Nancy to win14.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Reims win or draw86.0%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Nancy win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Reims lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time42.7%

Nancy lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Reims ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1348 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Reims: at least 14Actual: 16
Nancy: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Reims: at least 5
Nancy: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Reims score1.93

Attack: Reims score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Nancy concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score0.66

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Reims concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%1–011.6%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1348 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.