Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Annecy–PAU

5–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Sports, Annecy

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AnnecyE. Salles (own goal)
23'AnnecyM. Sahi
36'AnnecyM. Sahi (assist: T. Rambaud)
49'AnnecyA. Kashi (assist: Triston Rowe)
64'AnnecyA. Gomes Rodriguez (assist: B. Toure)
88'PAUT. Pouilly (assist: E. Zuliani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Annecy		PAU
12	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
428	Passes	531
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Annecy 1.49 · PAU 1.04. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Annecy 12 · PAU 6; on target 6 and 4.
PAU kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Leprodhomme→

2.67

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Annecy to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Annecy, 1.04 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — Annecy win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,343 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Annecy to win51.3%

Draw26.2%

PAU to win22.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Annecy lead at half-time41.6%

Level at half-time40.8%

PAU lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Annecy ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or PAU ahead58.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1343 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Annecy: at least 15Actual: 19
PAU: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Annecy: at least 4Actual: 1
PAU: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Annecy score1.49

Attack: Annecy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score1.04

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.6%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.