Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Laval–Rodez

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Laval		Rodez
5	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	6
53%	Possession	47%
431	Passes	364
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Laval 1.23 · Rodez 1.35. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Laval 5 · Rodez 12; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.86

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Rodez to win”. Second comes “Laval to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Laval, 1.47 for Rodez.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,343 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Laval to win34.8%

Draw27.0%

Rodez to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Laval win or draw61.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Rodez win65.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Laval lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time46.1%

Rodez lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Laval ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Rodez ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1343 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Laval: at least 12Actual: 11
Rodez: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Laval: at least 5Actual: 2
Rodez: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Laval score1.23

Attack: Laval score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rodez's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rodez score1.35

Attack: Rodez score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1343 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.