Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

RED Star FC 93–Guingamp

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'GuingampL. Mafouta (assist: J. Matumona)
34'RED Star FC 93D. Durand
35'RED Star FC 93J. Ikanga A Ngele (assist: B. Pierret)
43'RED Star FC 93R. Hachem (assist: K. Cabral)
71'GuingampL. Mafouta (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Guingamp
8	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
268	Passes	486
183	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.35 · Guingamp 1.16. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots RED Star FC 93 8 · Guingamp 13; on target 5 and 6.
Guingamp kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

T. Bouille→

3.89

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.9%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for RED Star FC 93, 1.00 for Guingamp.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,343 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win54.9%

Draw25.1%

Guingamp to win20.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time44.4%

Guingamp lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Guingamp ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1343 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 13Actual: 23
Guingamp: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4
Guingamp: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.35

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Guingamp score1.16

Attack: Guingamp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.