Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Clermont Foot–Bastia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Clermont FootS. Sow (assist: I. Fakili)
47'Clermont FootAllan Ackra · red card
75'BastiaM. Merghem · red card
90'BastiaA. Zaouai (assist: J. Janneh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Bastia
9	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	12
0	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
209	Passes	394
151	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.11 · Bastia 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Clermont Foot 9 · Bastia 15; on target 2 and 3.
Bastia kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Lesage→

3.92

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Bastia to win”. Second comes “Clermont Foot to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Clermont Foot, 1.22 for Bastia.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,343 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win34.1%

Draw29.7%

Bastia to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Clermont Foot lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

Bastia lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Bastia ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1343 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 12Actual: 12
Bastia: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 5
Bastia: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.11

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bastia score1.19

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.2%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.