Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Dunkerque–Laval

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 20 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'LavalM. Camara (penalty)
85'LavalE. Clavreul (assist: Titouan Thomas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dunkerque		Laval
13	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	6
68%	Possession	32%
597	Passes	287
511	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dunkerque 1.57 · Laval 0.87. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Dunkerque 13 · Laval 11; on target 3 and 7.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

T. Bouille→

3.89

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Dunkerque to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Dunkerque, 1.13 for Laval.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — Dunkerque win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,342 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dunkerque to win45.0%

Draw27.7%

Laval to win27.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Dunkerque win or draw72.7%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Laval win55.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dunkerque lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time44.7%

Laval lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Dunkerque ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Laval ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1342 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dunkerque: at least 12Actual: 11
Laval: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Dunkerque: at least 5Actual: 5
Laval: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dunkerque score1.57

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Laval score0.87

Attack: Laval score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–110.0%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1342 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.