Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Estac Troyes–Boulogne

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb (assist: Y. Titi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Boulogne
11	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
377	Passes	421
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.59 · Boulogne 0.85. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Estac Troyes 11 · Boulogne 5; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.88

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Estac Troyes, 0.85 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 86.9% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,339 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win65.7%

Draw21.2%

Boulogne to win13.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time44.3%

Boulogne lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1339 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 14
Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 8
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.59

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score0.85

Attack: Boulogne score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%2–110.9%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.