Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Le Mans–Clermont Foot

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Le MansD. Guèye (assist: A. Bourabaa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Clermont Foot
13	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
481	Passes	355
409	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Mans 1.82 · Clermont Foot 0.73. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Le Mans 13 · Clermont Foot 10; on target 6 and 1.
Le Mans kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Leleu→

3.24

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Le Mans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Le Mans, 0.92 for Clermont Foot.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Le Mans win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,334 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Mans to win58.8%

Draw24.1%

Clermont Foot to win17.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

24	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Mans win or draw82.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.9%

X2 — draw or Clermont Foot win41.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Mans lead at half-time54.6%

Level at half-time38.2%

Clermont Foot lead at half-time7.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Mans ahead or level92.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Clermont Foot ahead45.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1334 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Mans: at least 14Actual: 24
Clermont Foot: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Le Mans: at least 6Actual: 6
Clermont Foot: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Mans score1.82

Attack: Le Mans score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Clermont Foot score0.73

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–010.9%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1334 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.