Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Nancy–Annecy

1–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'AnnecyM. Sahi (assist: C. Billemaz)
27'AnnecyC. Billemaz
53'AnnecyM. Sahi (assist: A. Larose)
59'AnnecyC. Billemaz (assist: A. Larose)
76'NancyM. Experience (assist: T. Bouriaud)
88'AnnecyA. Larose (assist: A. Gomes Rodriguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nancy		Annecy
8	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
381	Passes	406
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nancy 1.03 · Annecy 1.19. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Nancy 8 · Annecy 16; on target 1 and 8.

Referee

A. Souifi→

3.86

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Nancy to win”. Second comes “Annecy to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Nancy, 1.16 for Annecy.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,334 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nancy to win36.4%

Draw29.9%

Annecy to win33.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	23

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Nancy lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time46.7%

Annecy lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Nancy ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Annecy ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1334 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nancy: at least 12Actual: 11
Annecy: at least 16Actual: 23

Corners

Nancy: at least 4Actual: 1
Annecy: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nancy score1.03

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Annecy score1.19

Attack: Annecy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.4%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.