Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 30

Saint Etienne–Dunkerque

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Saint EtienneL. Stassin (assist: A. Boakye)
26'DunkerqueT. Robinet (penalty)
66'Saint EtienneZ. Davitashvili (assist: M. Jaber)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Dunkerque
20	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
415	Passes	446
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.60 · Dunkerque 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 20 · Dunkerque 6; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

P. Gaillouste→

3.74

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Saint Etienne, 1.01 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,332 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win61.6%

Draw22.1%

Dunkerque to win16.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Saint Etienne win or draw83.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.9%

X2 — draw or Dunkerque win38.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Saint Etienne lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time41.1%

Dunkerque lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1332 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 13Actual: 16
Dunkerque: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 6
Dunkerque: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.60

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score0.93

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.9%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1332 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 101 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.