Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 30

RED Star FC 93–Bastia

4–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'BastiaD. Guidi · red card
7'BastiaJ. Guevara
15'RED Star FC 93D. Durand (assist: P. Lemonnier)
34'BastiaF. Tomi
37'BastiaP. Lemonnier (own goal)
48'RED Star FC 93D. Durand (assist: K. Cabral)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Bastia
18	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
7	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
429	Passes	285
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.16 · Bastia 0.91. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots RED Star FC 93 18 · Bastia 12; on target 8 and 7.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Stinat→

3.68

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for RED Star FC 93, 0.87 for Bastia.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,330 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win48.5%

Draw29.3%

Bastia to win22.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

D. Durand (assist: J. Ikanga A Ngele)

86'RED Star FC 93H. Benali (assist: P. Meïssa Ba)

90+6'RED Star FC 93H. Benali · red card

5	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw77.8%

12 — any result other than a draw70.7%

X2 — draw or Bastia win51.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–3

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time43.3%

Bastia lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Bastia ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1330 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 5
Bastia: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 4
Bastia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (46.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.16

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bastia score0.91

Attack: Bastia score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–014.0%0–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1330 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 62 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.