Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 30

Clermont Foot–Nancy

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'NancyB. Bokangu (assist: Z. Ztouti)
50'Clermont FootI. M'Bahia (assist: J. Gastien)
54'Clermont FootI. Fakili (assist: E. Cantero)
61'NancyB. Bokangu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Nancy
16	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
574	Passes	293
510	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.28 · Nancy 1.06. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Clermont Foot 16 · Nancy 5; on target 6 and 2.
Clermont Foot kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

F. Batta→

3.51

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “Nancy to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Clermont Foot, 1.12 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,325 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win39.1%

Draw29.6%

Nancy to win31.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	9

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Clermont Foot lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time46.4%

Nancy lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1325 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 12Actual: 20
Nancy: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 6
Nancy: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.28

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score1.06

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.7%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.