Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 29

Bastia–Amiens

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'AmiensY. Koré (assist: C. Louis)
23'BastiaF. Tomi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bastia		Amiens
18	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	7
3	Offsides	4
41%	Possession	59%
296	Passes	435
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bastia 1.52 · Amiens 0.89. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bastia 18 · Amiens 9; on target 8 and 3.
Amiens kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Kherradji→

3.69

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Bastia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Bastia, 0.88 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — Bastia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bastia to win53.2%

Draw27.0%

Amiens to win19.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Bastia lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time43.2%

Amiens lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bastia ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1316 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bastia: at least 15Actual: 13
Amiens: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Bastia: at least 5Actual: 2
Amiens: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bastia score1.52

Attack: Bastia score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score0.89

Attack: Amiens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–012.8%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.