Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 29

Dunkerque–Rodez

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'RodezT. Arconte (assist: N. Galves)
73'DunkerqueE. Bardeli (assist: E. Sylvestre)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dunkerque		Rodez
11	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	0
2	Offsides	6
70%	Possession	30%
639	Passes	271
576	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dunkerque 1.53 · Rodez 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dunkerque 11 · Rodez 6; on target 3 and 2.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

R. Landry→

4.31

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Dunkerque to win”. Second comes “Rodez to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Dunkerque, 1.32 for Rodez.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dunkerque to win43.4%

Draw26.3%

Rodez to win30.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Dunkerque win or draw69.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Rodez win56.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dunkerque lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time43.8%

Rodez lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Dunkerque ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Rodez ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1316 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dunkerque: at least 11Actual: 8
Rodez: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Dunkerque: at least 4
Rodez: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dunkerque score1.53

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rodez's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rodez score1.11

Attack: Rodez score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1316 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.