Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 29

RED Star FC 93–Laval

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Laval
18	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
599	Passes	268
536	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.44 · Laval 0.85. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 18 · Laval 4; on target 6 and 2.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

A. Petit→

3.51

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for RED Star FC 93, 0.84 for Laval.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win54.6%

Draw26.9%

Laval to win18.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time45.7%

Laval lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Laval ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1316 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 10
Laval: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 5Actual: 8
Laval: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.44

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Laval score0.85

Attack: Laval score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–013.4%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.