Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 28

Saint Etienne–Annecy

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Saint EtienneK. Pedro (assist: Z. Davitashvili)
23'Saint EtienneI. Cardona (assist: L. Stassin)
33'Saint EtienneL. Stassin (assist: I. Cardona)
63'Saint EtienneZ. Davitashvili

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Annecy
16	Shots	2
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
675	Passes	417
592	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.50 · Annecy 0.94. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Saint Etienne 16 · Annecy 2; on target 6 and 2.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

A. Petit→

3.54

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.9%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Saint Etienne, 0.98 for Annecy.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,315 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win55.9%

Draw24.9%

Annecy to win19.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time44.0%

Annecy lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Annecy ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1315 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 11Actual: 19
Annecy: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 6
Annecy: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.50

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Annecy score0.94

Attack: Annecy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.9%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.