Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 28

Rodez–Bastia

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'RodezT. Arconte (penalty)
40'BastiaJ. Eickmayer (assist: A. Zaouai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rodez		Bastia
12	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
300	Passes	336
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rodez 1.26 · Bastia 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rodez 12 · Bastia 13; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

K. Abed→

3.02

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Rodez to win”. Second comes “Bastia to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Rodez, 1.11 for Bastia.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,307 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rodez to win39.1%

Draw29.8%

Bastia to win31.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Rodez lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time44.6%

Bastia lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Rodez ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Bastia ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1307 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rodez: at least 14Actual: 9
Bastia: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Rodez: at least 4Actual: 9
Bastia: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rodez score1.26

Attack: Rodez score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bastia score1.08

Attack: Bastia score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rodez's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.0%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.