Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 28

Amiens–Le Mans

3–4

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Le MansA. Rabillard
13'Le MansS. Yohou
27'AmiensA. Leautey (assist: N. Kandil)
31'Le MansL. Bretelle (assist: L. Buades)
45'AmiensIbou Sané
54'AmiensN. Kandil
83'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amiens		Le Mans
9	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
352	Passes	364
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amiens 0.85 · Le Mans 1.67. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Amiens 9 · Le Mans 18; on target 5 and 8.

Referee

F. Batta→

3.44

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Le Mans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Amiens, 1.53 for Le Mans.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Le Mans win).
These values were computed from 1,307 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amiens to win25.7%

Draw27.4%

Le Mans to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Ibrahim Fofana · red card

90'Le MansI. Cossier

15	Fouls	22

5	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Amiens win or draw53.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Le Mans win74.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–3

Amiens lead at half-time11.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

Le Mans lead at half-time45.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Amiens ahead or level54.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Le Mans ahead88.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1307 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amiens: at least 10Actual: 15
Le Mans: at least 16Actual: 22

Corners

Amiens: at least 4Actual: 1
Le Mans: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amiens score0.85

Attack: Amiens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Mans score1.67

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%0–110.3%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1307 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 27 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.