Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 27

RED Star FC 93–Dunkerque

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'RED Star FC 93K. Cabral (assist: D. Durand)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Dunkerque
11	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	0
5	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
439	Passes	500
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.12 · Dunkerque 1.19. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 11 · Dunkerque 7; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.31

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “Dunkerque to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for RED Star FC 93, 1.16 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,303 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win39.6%

Draw29.0%

Dunkerque to win31.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time46.2%

Dunkerque lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1303 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 11Actual: 16
Dunkerque: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4
Dunkerque: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.12

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score1.19

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.1%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.