Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 27

Clermont Foot–PAU

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'PAUG. Versini (assist: J. Ruiz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		PAU
10	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
532	Passes	345
469	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.36 · PAU 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Clermont Foot 10 · PAU 8; on target 3 and 3.
Clermont Foot kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.87

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “PAU to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Clermont Foot, 1.33 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,298 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win39.0%

Draw27.4%

PAU to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Clermont Foot win or draw66.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or PAU win61.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Clermont Foot lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

PAU lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or PAU ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1298 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 20
PAU: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4
PAU: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.36

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score1.39

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.5%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1298 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.