Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 26

Estac Troyes–Clermont Foot

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Clermont FootK. Bamba
78'Estac TroyesK. Diawara
81'Estac TroyesM. Adeline

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Clermont Foot
13	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
484	Passes	355
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.75 · Clermont Foot 0.86. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Estac Troyes 13 · Clermont Foot 4; on target 5 and 2.
Estac Troyes kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Petit→

3.54

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Estac Troyes, 1.04 for Clermont Foot.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,294 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win56.1%

Draw24.3%

Clermont Foot to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time43.9%

Clermont Foot lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Clermont Foot ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1294 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 19
Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 5Actual: 6
Clermont Foot: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.75

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Clermont Foot score0.86

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.