Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 25

RED Star FC 93–Le Mans

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Le Mans
7	Shots	6
0	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
377	Passes	333
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.09 · Le Mans 1.18. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 7 · Le Mans 6; on target 0 and 2.

Referee

T. Bouille→

3.85

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for RED Star FC 93, 1.09 for Le Mans.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,285 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win42.0%

Draw29.1%

Le Mans to win28.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time47.9%

Le Mans lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Le Mans ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1285 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 10Actual: 9
Le Mans: at least 15Actual: 17

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 6
Le Mans: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.09

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Mans score1.18

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.9%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.