Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 25

Laval–Nancy

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'LavalM. Sellouki
80'NancyN. Saint-Ruf (assist: Z. Fdaouch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Laval		Nancy
8	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	10
1	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
328	Passes	326
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Laval 1.12 · Nancy 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Laval 8 · Nancy 16; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

F. Benchabane→

3.88

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Laval to win”. Second comes “Nancy to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Laval, 1.04 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Laval to win37.3%

Draw31.1%

Nancy to win31.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Laval lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time46.8%

Nancy lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Laval ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1280 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Laval: at least 13Actual: 19
Nancy: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Laval: at least 5Actual: 2
Nancy: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Laval score1.12

Attack: Laval score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score1.05

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.0%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.