Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 25

Clermont Foot–Dunkerque

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'DunkerqueAristide Zossou (assist: Opa Sanganté)
55'Clermont FootF. Diedhiou (penalty)
90'Clermont FootB. Lagae (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Dunkerque
11	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	7
5	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
362	Passes	525
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 0.99 · Dunkerque 1.47. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Clermont Foot 11 · Dunkerque 9; on target 5 and 2.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

B. Roffet→

4.14

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Dunkerque to win”. Second comes “Clermont Foot to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Clermont Foot, 1.32 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win33.7%

Draw28.7%

Dunkerque to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Clermont Foot lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time44.3%

Dunkerque lead at half-time35.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level64.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1280 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 7
Dunkerque: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 7
Dunkerque: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score0.99

Attack: Clermont Foot score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score1.47

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.