Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 25

Montpellier–Reims

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		Reims
10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
380	Passes	410
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.04 · Reims 1.32. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Montpellier 10 · Reims 15; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

R. Landry→

4.37

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Reims to win”. Second comes “Montpellier to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Montpellier, 1.36 for Reims.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win30.5%

Draw28.8%

Reims to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Montpellier lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time44.0%

Reims lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Reims ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1280 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 12Actual: 20
Reims: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Montpellier: at least 4Actual: 3
Reims: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.04

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reims concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reims score1.32

Attack: Reims score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.1%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.