Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 24

Le Mans–Guingamp

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 23 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Le MansD. Guèye (assist: A. Rabillard)
52'GuingampK. Sidibe (assist: L. Mafouta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Guingamp
9	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
329	Passes	507
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Mans 1.43 · Guingamp 1.04. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Le Mans 9 · Guingamp 14; on target 4 and 6.
Guingamp kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Leleu→

3.15

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Guingamp to win”. Second comes “Le Mans to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Le Mans, 1.23 for Guingamp.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Mans to win34.4%

Draw29.5%

Guingamp to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Le Mans lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time43.7%

Guingamp lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Mans ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Guingamp ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Mans: at least 16Actual: 19
Guingamp: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Le Mans: at least 4Actual: 3
Guingamp: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Mans score1.43

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Guingamp score1.04

Attack: Guingamp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–19.9%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.