Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 24

Saint Etienne–Laval

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Saint EtienneZ. Davitashvili (penalty)
36'LavalM. Camara (assist: D. Mbayo)
38'Saint EtienneA. Boakye (assist: L. Stassin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Laval
20	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
537	Passes	347
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.76 · Laval 0.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 20 · Laval 6; on target 4 and 2.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

T. Bouille→

3.85

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Saint Etienne, 0.82 for Laval.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,278 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win63.1%

Draw22.8%

Laval to win14.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Saint Etienne lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time41.3%

Laval lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Laval ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1278 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 12Actual: 12
Laval: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 5Actual: 10
Laval: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.76

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Laval score0.77

Attack: Laval score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%1–011.9%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.