Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 24

Estac Troyes–PAU

4–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'PAUC. Fall (assist: A. Bobichon)
21'PAUG. Versini (assist: C. Fall)
43'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb (penalty)
44'Estac TroyesM. Detourbet (assist: Sankhoun Diawara)
61'PAUJ. Kalulu (assist: O. Sissoko)
77'Estac TroyesM. Adeline

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		PAU
22	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
590	Passes	345
528	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.66 · PAU 1.03. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Estac Troyes 22 · PAU 11; on target 8 and 5.
Estac Troyes kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.18

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Estac Troyes, 1.13 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win49.8%

Draw26.0%

PAU to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,543 of 3,253 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: A. Ouzenadji)

90'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb (assist: L. Maronnier)

11	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estac Troyes win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or PAU win50.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Estac Troyes lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

PAU lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or PAU ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1276 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 11
PAU: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 5
PAU: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.66

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score1.03

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1276 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 95 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.