Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 23

RED Star FC 93–Nancy

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'RED Star FC 93J. Escartin (assist: G. Haag)
53'NancyJ. Escartin (own goal)
84'RED Star FC 93S. Khaoui (assist: D. Sylla)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Nancy
16	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
477	Passes	358
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.37 · Nancy 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots RED Star FC 93 16 · Nancy 3; on target 3 and 1.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.47

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for RED Star FC 93, 0.97 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win48.3%

Draw28.2%

Nancy to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time32.4%

Level at half-time45.1%

Nancy lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead67.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 19
Nancy: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 8
Nancy: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.37

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score0.94

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–012.1%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.