Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 23

Clermont Foot–Rodez

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Clermont FootF. Diedhiou (assist: K. Bamba)
45'RodezT. Arconte (assist: N. Galves)
90'RodezK. Nagera (assist: M. Saka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Rodez
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
408	Passes	374
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.29 · Rodez 1.45. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Clermont Foot 15 · Rodez 7; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

F. Batta→

3.38

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “Rodez to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Clermont Foot, 1.29 for Rodez.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win39.1%

Draw27.8%

Rodez to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Clermont Foot win or draw66.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Rodez win60.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Clermont Foot lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Rodez lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Rodez ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 10Actual: 8
Rodez: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 3
Rodez: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.29

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rodez concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rodez score1.45

Attack: Rodez score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1262 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 56 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.