Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 23

Amiens–Dunkerque

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'DunkerqueAntoine Sekongo (assist: T. Robinet)
58'DunkerqueT. Robinet (penalty)
63'DunkerqueAntoine Sekongo (assist: E. Bardeli)
78'AmiensT. Averlant (assist: S. Ntamack)
89'DunkerqueA. Kanté (assist: Opa Sanganté)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amiens		Dunkerque
14	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	8
11	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
314	Passes	448
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amiens 0.93 · Dunkerque 1.61. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Amiens 14 · Dunkerque 13; on target 3 and 8.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

T. Leprodhomme→

2.80

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Dunkerque to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Amiens, 1.56 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (X2 — draw or Dunkerque win).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amiens to win24.5%

Draw27.1%

Dunkerque to win48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Amiens lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time42.4%

Dunkerque lead at half-time38.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Amiens ahead or level61.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amiens: at least 12Actual: 16
Dunkerque: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Amiens: at least 4Actual: 5
Dunkerque: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amiens score0.93

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score1.61

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–110.4%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.